I would probably be the last person you would want to ask concerning technology trends for the future, but in this blog, I will take a stab at the future of desktop computing. Because I don't have the gift of prophesy, I have been asking people at my school who are paid to have a clue about this stuff. In general, most people that I asked felt that the growing collaborative trend and active participatory culture created by the internet will lead to cloud computing. We will not have a need for a desktop operating system. Instead, all that will be needed in our homes is a input device (keyboard, touchscreen, touch coffee table, or our voice). The future will be devoid of operating systems.
Although I would agree with input devices evolving and allowing users to access the web with futuristic splendor, I have trouble suggesting the demise of operating systems. Perhaps a shift towards cloud computing will dominate the majority or users, but there will still be the generation that has trouble abandoning the security blanket that is an operating system. My assumption is based in large part on the current state of online computing. As I understand it, cloud computing has not currently developed to the point that it is reliable enough to tear users away from their current operating systems. This might be naive on my part, but I would feel more comfortable with companies having more time to work out kinks not yet discovered with online computing opportunities. Like we have seem with the development of the personal computer, there are many companies who have a specific strengths concerning online computing, but to this point, no one has fully grabbed the reigns and taken the lead with this technology. I think there are also still concerns with security with online computing. It is probably still safer than any current method for storing data, but the perception of personal data floating around in cyberspace for savvy hackers to grab is difficult to quell. In the end, these issues will probably be resolved and more people will be drawn to the idea of online computing.
As I said earlier, I think there will always be a market for operating systems, although they will be constantly evolving to stay current. Certainly Bill Gates will be trying to corner the market with online computing because he knows the financial upside will be staggering. As more big names come into the game, the popularity of online computing will grow exponentially. Who knows, perhaps I too will commit fully to this idea of online computing, but I maintain that I do not have the prophetic gift. :)
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